Optimistic Investing…
This week I had another round of internal conversation over the upcoming Pick of the Month. During that talk, we once again touched on the investment potential of the project in question. In other words, we spoke about how far it can go concerning price action.
We concluded that being a safer Pick, it most likely won’t have an explosive growth like small-caps that you’d see in SIMETRI Radar or among risker picks. That doesn’t mean it won’t ever reach 10x or even more. It just requires more time to appreciate, and there may not be enough time left in this bull market to support that growth.
That conversation lit a bulb in my mind. While the best way to invest in something is to believe in the project wholeheartedly, be as optimistic as possible, the best way to take profits is, in my opinion, to think about what would happen if the market went south tomorrow.
I continue to remind you that we believe in survival on the market. To clarify, given how much time I spend looking at the screen and how many new things I force myself to learn to get alpha, I still get frustrated and am almost in a perpetual state of fear of missing out. Still, I fight this FOMO and focus on the long term because I also know about survivorship bias.
The stories you may have seen on Twitter about people becoming millionaires off investing in single assets are most probably true. However, hundreds of people made high-conviction bets on other assets and lost.
I vividly remember a story from 2018 where a person from the famous ICO-hunting community, ICODrops, made over 100x on ICON only to see all those gains evaporate just because he believed that the bull market wasn’t over.
I also still keep in touch with a person who, back in the day, was heavily invested in XLM only to lose all the gains he made and end up in debt because he had to borrow money to keep his margin position alive.
But the more important thing about these two cases is that the ICODrops guy still had quite a lot of money after all the hopes about the revival of the bull run vanished in 2018. It was quite the opposite for the XLM guy.
Nobody knows your financial situation better than you, which means that only you can make the most reasonable investment decision for yourself.
Tying it all back to the Picks, even if we don’t release recommendations, but a Pick went over 100%, it may be a good decision to take some money off the table. If you aim for 10x returns each time, you may not be able to stomach losses if the market goes south.
Ironically, only people with sizable investment funds can relatively safely go up the risk curve if they keep their bets small. With a million dollars and a degen fund of $100,000, it’s possible to lose $99,000 aping into borderline scams and still make it all back plus a substantial profit with that $1,000.
With a million in stablecoins in your pocket, there’s no need to care about whether or not the investment you are highly convinced about will 100x during this or the next bull market. You can easily survive through a period of underperformance and won’t have to sell.
The rich are getting richer, and it’s important to understand that whoever is flexing their gains on Twitter doesn’t have a similar situation like you. You may be too small to do that kind of thing yet. And the only relatively safe way of getting bigger that I know is by taking money off the table.
It doesn’t sound sexy, I know. Nor does it sound easy like “follow our advice and become a millionaire in a year.” It’s work that you have to do on your part because nobody else can.
Always think for yourself. Invest with optimism and exit with pessimism. Nobody knows how the market will behave tomorrow. However, we know that another opportunity will always be there.
SIMETRI Portfolio – Bouncing
While BTC has been growing over this week, and altcoins bounced along with it, the Portfolio is still far from where it was just a few weeks ago. Currently, the ROI is around ~2,000%, and it was around ~3,000% back then.
Generally, the market is still not out of the woods, although we’ve seen bullish price action. You can learn more about why by watching a summary from Nathan, our Technical Analyst. Hence, the pessimistic profit-taking may be a good strategy here for some.
