Time in the Market…
Over the past couple of weeks, BTC went from a depressive state at $35,000 to a bullish state at $45,000. Now, as we’re sliding back to $40,000 and maybe below that, I want to share something important.
I never understood it, but it’s natural for people to go away from the markets if they’re not up-trending. If a new ATH isn’t made every week, people don’t pay attention to the market.
When BTC was climbing back up to $20,000, I learned C in a coding bootcamp, which was on-sight. I saw dozens of beginner developers daily, and some of them knew that I work in crypto. Yet, they didn’t start to ask me about BTC until it broke the 2017 all-time high.
What if we don’t get another all-time high in crypto and stocks for several months or even years. I remember when our CEO, Mitchell, first posed this question. Since I’ve only experienced up or down-trending markets in my life, I didn’t know what to answer.
If we enter a gigantic crab market, a monstrous chop, is that the right decision to be on the sidelines? Is leaving the market till better days a viable option?
Let’s look at the S&P 500 performance from 1997 to 2009. For 12 years, the market was pretty much crab.
Source: DataHub.
It’s one thing to come to the market when it seems to be close to a bottom. However, this wasn’t the case.
Source: DataHub.
Yet, we know what followed that period. Whoever stuck around and kept feeding the market won. And here, let me switch to another important topic.
Many beginners approach markets as a source of income. The crazy gains of crypto and stock markets of the past months made people believe that they could live off trading assets. I think that’s in part why we started to hear about the Great Resignation. It’s a big mistake.
Markets are profit-generating machines. For a machine to work, it needs fuel: money. And the only consistent source of income I know is a job. Markets are not a job for the vast majority of us.
I believe that markets reward those who patiently feed them. You can and probably should get less aggressive when they teeter, but it’s a mistake to leave.
That’s because nobody knows the future. But we are optimistic individuals, and if something has value, it will be recognized by the market sooner or later.
When this recognition process starts, it’s the slow and patient who win the easiest and with the highest probability. Every market will have lucky millionaires that started only with $1,000, but the probability of becoming one is rather low.
So, no matter what awaits us, I would like to believe that you will be feeding these profit-generating machines. And then, when you gracefully exit, you maybe will remember this email and smile.
SIMETRI Portfolio – A Slight Bump
Although the Portfolio went up to about 1,200% ROI, I’m still cautious about what’s ahead of us. If anything, this may be the right time to reduce risk if you’ve been stressing when BTC went to $35,000.
