Let the Market Guide You
The market has admittedly become boring after the FTX collapse, so it might be a good time to share a short personal story. It should help you in your journey.
I’m dating a girl that likes to make plans. Everything, like activities and timeframes, has to be rigidly organized. On the other hand, I don’t tend to make any firm plans, only goals. I was taught by life and markets that planning rarely helps and only leads to frustration.
I believe that no one has a crystal ball, and while we can think about probabilities, we should focus on embracing uncertainty. It is for this reason that things like the “all weather portfolio” exist.
Observing my girlfriend’s behavior has taught me that uncertainty makes people feel uneasy. Having a clear image of what’s about to happen apparently gives her a sense of confidence, and having a boyfriend like me that doesn’t want to plan anything is frustrating for her.
In our time together, I have seen some of her plans crash against reality. But she has seen that, for lack of planning, I haven’t been much affected by rapid changes in my life—though it certainly took time for her to understand and internalize my approach. With regards to crypto, you might be in a similar situation, and some adjustment time might be necessary.
I’m in no position to advise you, but you can at least consider not constructing a rigid plan for yourself. When it comes to the market, having specific timeframes and price targets is sometimes worse than slowly building a portfolio while taking notes of where the market is going and reacting when necessary.
We don’t know what the next cycle’s ignition event will be. In 2014 it was Ethereum’s ICO, but it wasn’t the first ICO ever. In 2020 it was Compound’s liquidity mining, but DeFi had already existed for a while.
We don’t know what the price of BTC will be at the top of the next cycle. I recently spoke on a Twitter Space where people spent at least 30 minutes arguing about whether or not BTC will reach the $500,000 mark.
We don’t know what narratives will dominate the market. In 2020 it was DeFi. In 2021 it was Layer-1 rotation and NFTs. If you asked someone about any of these three in 2019, almost no one could tell you anything about them—especially not NFTs.
Building theories and theses is great practice, and so is having trading systems. You also need conviction for building a portfolio, there’s no doubt about it. However, your attitude towards all of these methods should be flexible, in my opinion. Otherwise, the market will unpleasantly surprise you.
If you are still here after everything that happened, it’s already a tremendous achievement, and you shouldn’t overlook it. Survival is more important than making the highest possible returns. If you have conviction, make sure you also control your risks: risks you’re already aware of, and risks you don’t know about.
SIMETRI Portfolio – More on Aptos
Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds ETH. Crypto Briefing and members of the research team hold some of the Pick of the Month coins mentioned in the table above. Read our trading policy to see how SIMETRI protects its members against insider trading.