Nailing The Bottom.
I’ve been in the market for over four years already and what you’re seeing right now is what I anticipated when $BTC was $30,000. I didn’t speak about this with anyone because it was a gut feeling. Things were too optimistic for a bounce compared to the previous cycle.
Now we’re seeing the real goblin town opening the gates. “Supercycle” was dismissed while its main proponent couldn’t meet its financial obligations. “Contagion” became a new trend in crypto Twitter. The Fed raised rates. $JPY started to resemble $UST.
At this point, many are doom posting what are, in my opinion, outlandish targets for $BTC. Yesterday in some Twitter spaces, I heard the number below $5,000. The gut feeling that told me that $BTC might be up for more losses tells me that such targets are too bearish.
But it’s not about my or anyone’s gut feeling. Realistically, crypto either bounces from the current significant support of $20,000 per $BTC (the previous cycle’s top) or continues to get nuked due to deleveraging and stocks sliding amid poor macroeconomic conditions.
Nobody knows the future, and many are bad with probabilities. We have good and bad things going on in the market. “What’s good?” you might ask. Well, if Ethereum Merge is going to happen on schedule, it can catalyze the entire market’s bounce. But even if you don’t believe that crypto will decouple from equities, consider the upcoming elections in the U.S., which should push policymakers to instill some optimism in the markets.
And optimism we need. When the price of oil is near its all-time highs, and high inflation might manifest itself in food and fast-moving consumer goods in a few months, people hardly care about asset prices. If anything, they might be forced to sell the bottom to get by. It’s a dismal state of things in which crypto will most likely become like a desert.
Trying to nail the bottom might not be the best play if the future is unknown. So is actively catching knives. Remember, the number one goal is survival, so you need to position yourself so that you will have zero regrets regardless of whether the market bounces off these levels or continues to slide down.
Should we get a similar scenario to the previous bear market, there would be plenty of time to dollar-cost average after $BTC retraces ~80-85% from its all-time high. However, it’s not a guaranteed scenario because large players might absorb liquidations, leaving you out of the opportunity to buy crypto for cheap. That’s why cautious dollar-cost averaging might be a better bet.
Regardless of the price, buying on the way down is a viable strategy for those who believe crypto will survive. That’s because if it’s true (which has been the case so far), there will be new all-time highs. Remember that even buyers of $BTC and $ETH top in 2017-2018 could book solid profits in 2021 and even 2022.
SIMETRI Portfolio – No Surprises
No matter what project we pick, it has a good chance of losing value in the current market. Still, many of our Picks have not retraced over 90%, which is a decent performance given the circumstances.
Many of you requested an overview of projects in the Portfolio. We will upload a video with me doing that a couple of weeks ago and post the link in Discord today or tomorrow.
Also, we’re already testing the new version of the Portfolio tracker. I’m looking forward to showing it to you.
Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds ETH. Crypto Briefing and members of the research team hold some of the Pick of the Month coins mentioned in the table above. Read our trading policy to see how SIMETRI protects its members against insider trading.
